Welcome to your new look Tellimer developing markets round-up!
As part of our re-brand (be sure to check out our blog post on that), we’ve hand-picked some of our most thought-provoking new research from across the developing markets.
The central bank of Argentina has been firefighting on FX with four policy changes in six weeks. While the IMF (and the market) has come out in support, so many changes risk further damaging Argentina’s credibility. In this edition, we set out our thoughts on what this means for the macro situation and our views on top-down equity strategy.
Ukraine, meanwhile, has taken a step into the unknown with the election of comedian and outsider Volodymyr Zelensky as President. We look at how the hard work for the new president really starts now.
Also this month, we outline the portfolio decisions that helped Gulf Investment Fund outperform its reference index in Q1. GIF has made some changes to its country and sector weightings, which we highlight below. Happy reading.
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FEATURED RESEARCH
Argentina's credibility issue
Argentina’s central bank announced further changes to its FX regime on 29 April, the third set of changes since February on our count (and excluding other policy changes to the monetary base target and interest rates).
Volodymyr Zelensky may have had a landslide victory over incumbent Petro Poroshenko (winning 73% of the vote), but any honeymoon period from here may be short-lived.
GIF’s net asset value grew 12.2% in Q1, which was substantially better than the reference index (S&P GCC Composite) return of 8.7%. Qatar Gas Transport, Al Rajhi Bank and Emirates NBD, which are among the fund’s top holdings, all performed well during the quarter. Since Dec-17, GIF has delivered 25% NAV return (dividends adjusted) versus its reference index’s 18% return.
A new logo, a new website and a new name. It’s a lot of ‘new’ to take in. Which is why we thought we’d take the time to explain just where our new logo comes from.
US | 13-17 May Nirgunan Tiruchelvam, Tellimer Consumers
Nairobi, Cape Town, Johannesburg 27-30 May
Afreximbank
Europe | 10-14 June
Gulf Investment Fund
UK | 17-21 June Hasnain Malik, Tellimer Equity Strategy
US & UK | 4-11 July
IDLC Finance Management
To find out more about these upcoming roadshows, email us today.
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FEATURED EVENT Pharos Annual Investor Conference
19 - 20 June, 2019 El Gouna, Egypt
Bringing together government officials, decision makers and investors, the Pharos Annual Investor Conference will give you the opportunity to meet with industry peers across 11 key sectors.
Share insights and investment themes about listed companies in numerous sectors including Banking & Financial Institutions, Consumer Good, Industrials, Chemicals and Petrochemical and more.
Register your place before Wednesday May 15, 2019.
The World Bank Africa’s Pulse report in April focused on how digital technologies could transform Africa’s economies. If the continent reaches the ambitious target of universal digital access by 2030, it would help increase economic growth by 1.5 percentage points per year while reducing the poverty ratio by 0.7 percentage points per year.
Our research team notes that digital is already a key driver of banking sector earnings throughout Africa, despite governments and businesses across the continent being slow to add digital services. What’s more, only 27% of Africa’s population had access to the internet in 2018. According to the World Bank, in order to realise Africa’s digital revolution, meaningful policies have to be implemented “that allow the public and private sectors to participate in the new economy”.
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